Super Bowl 50 was a game Broncos fans will want to remember forever and one
Panthers fans have been trying to forget for months.
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past, though, it seems Carolina and Denver are still reliving that fateful night
in Santa Clara in the first month of the 2016 season.While the Broncos only
narrowly prevailed over Carolina during their rematch in the opening game of the
regular season, they have gone 4-0 while starting over at quarterback and are on
the short list for footballs best team.The Panthers, meanwhile, are in a free
fall. They were ripped apart on Sunday by Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, who hit 501
passing yards and 300 receiving yards, respectively, in a 48-33 romp that saw
Cam Newton leave after suffering a bizarre (and avoidable) concussion. At 1-3
and with Atlanta possessing the tiebreaker between the two teams, Carolina is
2.5 games back in the NFC South after four weeks. ESPNs Football Power Index
gives the Panthers just a 37.2 percent chance of making the postseason.The 2015
underlying numbers suggested each of these teams would decline a bit in 2016,
and they both made controversial decisions to move on from would-be contributors
during the offseason and go with unproven talent at a critical position. So why
have the Broncos flourished while the Panthers have struggled? And will it
continue to go on this way?Lets take a closer look at Denver and Carolina to see
whats up with the defending conference champions.Von TrapYou know the old adage:
If it aint broke, dont fix it, right? The Broncos obviously werent broken last
year, and despite their roster turnover, they brought back enough of their core
talent to stick with the same principles which led them to their Super Bowl win
a year ago. In fact, the Broncos are doing a better job of doing the things they
did well in 2015 here in 2016. Theyre a more Broncos version of the
Broncos.Almost across the board, Gary Kubiaks team is playing better than it did
last season. The one exception is run defense, which was fourth in DVOA last
year and all the way down in 30th this season?before Sundays win over the
Buccaneers. Denver did well enough against the run there to ensure that its
ranking will improve, but its still a glaring weakness for a team that is pretty
good or better at just about everything else.The improvements start, strangely,
at quarterback:1. Trevor Siemian?and Paxton Lynch?are an upgrade over Peyton
Manning and Brock Osweiler. It would be wrong to pretend that Siemian has looked
like a superstar in the way that Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott have performed
during their stunning debuts, but Siemian has been perfectly acceptable, which
is a step up from what the Broncos got from their quarterbacks last year. Last
year, Manning and Osweiler produced a combined QBR of 52.1, which was 25th in
the league. Their 76.3 passer rating was 31st in the NFL. In the first quarter
of 2016, Siemian and Lynch, who replaced an injured Siemian on Sunday, have
combined for a QBR of 67.8 and a passer rating of 98.6. Those figures are 12th
and 10th in the league this season, respectively.While Siemian has had trouble
with some of his decision-making and thrown his passes just 6.7 yards in the
air, which is 28th among qualifying quarterbacks, he and Lynch have managed to
protect the football. Last year, Peyton & Co. turned the ball over on 15.1
percent of their offensive possessions, which was the sixth-worst rate in the
league. This season, through four games, Kubiaks offense has given it up on 11.1
percent of its drives, which is just below league average (12.2 percent) and
good for 16th. Simply average is a significant upgrade for the Broncos, and the
improvement in giveaways has helped them in another key way:2. The offense has
made things easier for the Denver defense. Quietly, what made the 2015 season
even more impressive for the Broncos defense is how often it stepped up with
terrible field position.?The average Broncos defensive series last season
started with 70.5 yards to go for a touchdown, meaning the D took the field
right around the oppositions 30-yard line. That was the third-worst average
starting field position for a defense in the NFL last year, and the short fields
made it more difficult for the Broncos to come up with stops.With fewer
turnovers, naturally, the Broncos have had more breathing room to work with on
defense. Their typical defensive series in 2016 has begun with 73.6 yards to go
for a touchdown, starting the Broncos off closer to the oppositions 26-yard
line. That would be the 10th-best average field position in football for
defenses this year. It might not seem like much, but those 3 yards add up over
the course of a 180-possession season. Denver was also stuck facing a
league-high 195 meaningful drives last year per Football Outsiders, which was
the equivalent of playing a 17th regular-season game. This year, theyre on pace
to defend 172 meaningful possessions, which is just below league average. The
extra rest can only help Denver and its defenders.3. The pass defense has
somehow gotten scarier. Denver posted the leagues best pass defense last year,
hitting a staggering minus-28 percent?in DVOA when the Panthers were the only
other team in football below minus-10 percent. They were at minus-22.0 percent
before the Bucs game and should improve, given that Jameis Winston was the worst
quarterback in the league this week per adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A),
calculated by Chase Stuart of Football Perspective and FiveThirtyEight.The
Denver pass rush was also atop the leaderboard a year ago and has still managed
to improve. The Broncos led the NFL in sack rate (8.1 percent) and pressure rate
(34.7 percent) last season. Despite getting just 45 snaps from DeMarcus Ware so
far this season, they havent missed a beat, and Von Miller is the current NFL
leader in sacks. While the Vikings have the leagues highest sack rate, Denver
has taken down opposing passers on 10.4 percent of their dropbacks, nearly a 29
percent improvement on its sack rate from a year ago. The Broncos are pressuring
opposing passers 38.4 percent of the time when nobody else is above 32.3
percent. Even the Vikings cant top that.To put it in context, the Broncos were
seventh in the league last season in terms of contacting the quarterback, which
they did on 13.9 percent of dropbacks. This year, the Broncos are making contact
on 25 percent of pass plays. Nobody else is above 17.5 percent. Theyre lapping
the field there. Denver has the best pass rush in football right now, and when
teams get passes off, Aqib Talib & Co. are lying in wait in trap coverage,
waiting to snatch throws out of the air. Theyre picking off 3.3 percent of
opposing passes, the fifth-best rate in the league.4. The injuries theyve
suffered have been in places of relative strength. The Broncos are a pretty deep
team, but theyve been lucky in that their injuries have hit places they were
prepared to handle. Wares absence might have crippled some teams, but the
Broncos were ready with 2015 first-rounder Shane Ray in reserve. Ray has three
sacks and five quarterback hits in two starts. Siemian reportedly suffered a
sprained AC joint in his non-throwing shoulder Sunday, which caused him to miss
the second half, but Lynch, the teams 2016 first-rounder, dropped into a
shotgun-heavy attack and kept the Broncos out of trouble.5. The schedule has
been relatively easy. One relatively simple way to measure strength of schedule
is to look at what a teams opponents have done in the games that didnt involve
the team in question. In other words, what have the teams who have played the
Broncos done when they werent lining up against Denver? The answer is, well, not
much. The Panthers, Buccaneers, Bengals and Colts have gone a combined 5-7 while
being outscored by 34 points. Compare that to Carolina ...Carolina Blues1. The
schedule has been extremely difficult. Its not the biggest problem the Panthers
are facing, but since I just mentioned it for the Broncos, lets start here. By
the same measure above, the teams Carolina has faced this season have gone a
combined 8-3 in games not involving the Panthers this year, outscoring their
opposition by 85 points. Carolinas three losses have come against the Broncos,
Vikings and Falcons, who each lead their respective divisions. For what its
worth, their next two games before a Week 7 bye are against the Buccaneers and
Saints.2. Cam Newton has been way less productive. I dont think Newton has been
the biggest problem for the Panthers, but his drop-off has been noticeable. The
reigning MVP ranks just 25th in opponent-adjusted QBR this season at 51.3; last
year, he was 12th in the same category. Some of that owes to the fact that he
has been pressured more frequently, which is obvious in watching Cam play. In
2015, Newton was sacked on 5.9 percent of his dropbacks and pressured 27.0
percent of the time, which ranked 19th and 16th in the league,
respectively.Through the first four games this year, Newton has been sacked on
7.6 percent of his dropbacks and hit 28.7 percent of the time, which has him
30th and 27th in those same categories. It was easy to chalk those pressures up
to the dominant defenses of Denver and Minnesota, but the lowly pass rush of the
Falcons hit Newton and Derek Anderson eight times on 49 dropbacks Sunday. They
pressured Newton on 30.8 percent of his dropbacks after posting a pressure rate
of just 19.8 percent through the first three weeks, which was fifth worst in the
NFL.Those hits have also seemed to cause more injuries. Newton was beaten up
during the opener against the Broncos, infamously and inexplicably avoiding the
leagues concussion protocol after suffering a series of arguably illegal hits
from Denver. He was excellent against the Vikings to start Week 3, going 7-of-7
for 116 yards and a rushing touchdown before suffering an ankle injury on a sack
and leaving the game briefly. When he came back, Newton went 14-of-28 for 146
yards. And on Sunday, Newton bizarrely lingered on the lip of the goal line
while running in a two-point conversion before taking a lick from Deion Jones.
Newton is now in the concussion protocol.3. The Panthers offense has failed to
stay on schedule. We often think about the idea of staying on schedule as a team
staying in manageable down-and-distances to avoid third-and-long. Theres value
in that, obviously, but the broader way to think about staying on schedule is
this: Are you in a better position to score points after a play than you were
beforehand? The expected points model that underpins the QBR metric does a good
job of measuring that by accounting for down, distance and game situation.Last
year, 45.6 percent of Carolinas offensive plays added expected points to the
ledger and increased its chances of scoring. That was the fourth-best rate in
the league. This year, just 40.4 percent of the Panthers plays have done the
same thing. Thats the sixth-worst rate in football. The Panthers have been just
as effective on third down and even better in the red zone than they were a year
ago, but what theyve done outside of those situations just hasnt been enough on
offense.Much of that is also due to turnovers, which obviously cant improve your
expected points total. Carolinas turnover rate on offense has skyrocketed from
9.6 percent last year (ninth in the league) to 18.8 percent (28th).4. The
secondary is struggling mightily. After allowing Julio Jones to go for 300
yards? You dont say! This isnt a one-week problem, though, and while Josh Norman
would have helped, the problems go deeper than losing one cornerback. A closer
look at the secondary suggests that there are major issues that will need to be
worked out sooner rather than later.The good news for Carolina is that its still
getting a lot of pressure. Last year, the Panthers bothered the opposing
quarterback on 28.7 percent of dropbacks. Through four games this year, their
pressure rate is at ... 28.7 percent. Not bad. Thats the sixth-best rate in the
NFL. The problem is when they dont get pressure. Last year, when the Panthers
couldnt get pressure on the opposing passer, they were still third in the league
in opposing passer rating and 11th in QBR. This year, when they leave the
quarterback alone, Carolina is 19th in opposing passer rating and 28th in
QBR.What has changed for the Panthers is easiest to see with a heat map. These
are two charts split into 10-yard chunks for air yards, the distance each pass
travels in the air before landing. The heat measures opposing quarterbacks
relative passer rating against the Panthers in each zone versus that of other
quarterbacks against other teams in those same zones. Red is good. Blue is bad.
Black is neutral. Heres 2015s map:Simple enough: The Panthers allowed
quarterbacks to survive underneath, but when teams threw downfield, Carolina ate
them alive. What about this year?Oh boy. The chart has flipped. The Panthers are
being carved up by teams attacking them downfield. Last year, on defending
throws 11 or more yards in the air (the blue spots in 2015), the Panthers posted
the leagues best opposing QBR by 10 points (46.0), tied for the leagues best
passer rating (57.5), and allowed teams to complete only 41.2 percent of their
passes while throwing 10 touchdowns against 16 picks.This year, the Panthers are
close to helpless downfield. Only the 49ers have allowed a worse QBR than
Carolinas 99.0 mark. Sean McDermotts bunch is allowing a passer rating of 130.3
on those throws, with teams completing 68.3 percent of their passes and tossing
up six touchdowns against two picks. Atlanta torched Carolina downfield in Week
4, but it was a problem even before Sunday; the Panthers were allowing a passer
rating of 103.5 on those throws over the first three weeks.Its still too early
to break down the coverage issues in the Falcons game because the league wont
post the All-22 film from the contest until tomorrow, but from replays,
commentary and the few big plays which yielded coachs tape on replay during the
games broadcast, its clear that there are communication and coverage lapses
within the Carolina secondary. While there were plays in which Jones was simply
too big and fast for any defender on the Panthers roster, Carolina put itself in
impossible situations and seemed to make as many mental mistakes as there were
physical.Start with this 43-yard bomb in the first quarter, which would have
been a touchdown if Matt Ryan made a better throw over the top. (Ryan played
well, but he left at least three would-be long touchdowns to Jones on the field
with misplaced or underthrown deep passes.) I have to believe McDermott doesnt
want to leave rookie cornerback Daryl Worley one-on-one on an island against
Jones. And while Jones reduces Worley to dust at the line of scrimmage, after
the play, Worley was shouting and pointing at safety Kurt Coleman, as if he was
expecting help downfield.On a first down in the second quarter, Jones beat Bene
Benwikere over the top, but Ryan underthrew his pass and Benwikere was able to
sprint at full stretch to tip it away. Two plays later, on third-and-17, Jones
lined up in the slot and ran at full speed past Benwikere as the defender
shuffled at half-speed. Jones ended up open by 5 yards downfield. Ryans throw
was poor and drew Jones into the middle of the field and in the line of fire of
Coleman, but the result was a 53-yard gain. Theres a coverage breakdown there
which will be revealed by coachs tape, but the specifics are less important than
the general problem: How on Earth do you end up with a coverage in which Jones
is brutally uncovered downfield on third-and-17? Nobody does that on purpose.The
big plays to Jones later in the game were more about Jones physical dominance
and bad tackling. The soul-crushing 75-yard touchdown pass that got Jones to 300
yards came when the Falcons went with play-action and opened up the middle of
the field. Jones beat Benwikere badly at the snap and shoved him aside after the
catch, while deep safety Tre Boston took a terrible angle to the receiver and
saw Jones accelerate right by him. Luke Kuechly even slowed down while he
thought Benwikere was about to make the tackle. A great block downfield was
enough to seal the touchdown.One of Atlantas other big plays also revealed a
communication problem within the secondary. On the 48-yard touchdown pass to
rookie tight end Austin Hooper, the Falcons went with play-action to the left
and booted Ryan out to the right side of the field, a classic move in a Kyle
Shanahan offense. Instead of throwing to the right side, though, Hooper feigned
blocking before slipping out to the left side of the formation and running a go
route. Not only did the Panthers totally switch off and fail to cover Hooper,
but the view from the sky points out that they actually had two receivers open
for big plays downfield:Josh Norman might have been able to help with Julio
Jones, but he cant cover both of those guys. And while I didnt really notice a
lot of these issues in Week 3 against Minnesota, the Vikings dont really stretch
teams vertically as often. Even against the middling 49ers passing attack in
Week 2, the Panthers had trouble. Heres one example. Boston is again the deep
safety on a second-and-9 just outside the red zone with Worley matched up in
coverage against Torrey Smith. Despite the fact that Vance McDonalds crossing
route is surrounded by no fewer than three Panthers defenders underneath, Boston
sprints forward to try to break up any throw to the tight end, allowing Smith an
easy release on his deep post for a touchdown. Heres the scene right after the
ball is thrown:And Boston wasnt the only safety who made a mistake to create an
easy touchdown downfield. Coleman took a messy route to turn a short Vance
McDonald catch into a 75-yard touchdown.Will the Panthers figure it out? History
suggests they will. McDermott and Ron Rivera have had to deal with this in the
past. The secondary they inherited was a mess and they soon lost their best
cornerback in Chris Gamble, who retired. They pieced together a useful unit from
spare parts during Carolinas breakout season in 2013, but the cap-strapped
Panthers were unable to retain Mike Mitchell and Captain Munnerlyn in free
agency, while fellow starter Quintin Mikell retired.The Panthers tried anew in
2014, but nothing worked for most of the year. Holdover Melvin White declined
and was benched. Free agents Thomas DeCoud and Antoine Cason failed to impress
and eventually lost their jobs late in the season. Norman, who had been lurking
on the back of the roster, worked his way into a starting job and started to
play like a Pro Bowler. Benwikere, a rookie fifth-rounder, got a shot out of
sheer desperation and outplayed Cason.Things clicked just in the nick of time
for the Panthers. After Benwikere replaced the released Cason in the lineup for
the final four weeks of the season, the Panthers went from allowing 27.6 points
per game (and going 3-7-1) to allowing just 10.8 points over their final four
contests, winning them all and claiming the NFC South. Norman emerged as a
superstar, and Carolinas pass defense began to look like the suffocating unit
which was so impressive last season. In 2014, though, it took the Panthers
three-quarters of the year to get things right, and they were surprised to find
that nobody else was particularly interested in winning the division.If it takes
them that long to piece together a functional secondary again in 2016, they
might not be so lucky this time around.
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State Warriors coach Mark Jackson asked his players a simple question during
Fridays morning shootaround: How many of them had ever been on a team 14 games
over . BALTIMORE -- Five days earlier, Orioles right-hander Kevin Gausman proved
to be a worthy adversary to Boston Red Sox ace Rick Porcello.Given a second
chance Monday night, Porcello got the best of rookie Dylan Bundy and beat the
Orioles 5-2 in a duel between the top two teams in the AL East.Porcello (21-4)
pitched a four-hitter, striking out seven and walking none in his third complete
game of the year. Last week at Fenway Park, the right-hander gave up one run in
eight innings against Baltimore but was outpitched by Gausman and took the
loss.In this one, Bundy (9-6) allowed two-run homers to David Ortiz and Mookie
Betts before being lifted after five innings.We knew we were going to have to
have a similar outing like we had in Boston to have a chance, Orioles manager
Buck Showalter said.Coming off a four-game sweep of the Yankees, Boston
sustained its late-season surge in the opener of an important four-game series
for both clubs. The Red Sox stand atop the division by a season-high four
games.Adam Jones homered and Mark Trumbo picked up his 102nd RBI for the
Orioles, who began the day with a one-game lead over Toronto for the top AL wild
card.Weve got three more here against (the Red Sox), Baltimores Manny Machado
said. Well just put it on a track where we need to be.Bostons goal over the next
three days will be to put away the Orioles for good.Were going to try, Ortiz
said.Porcello threw only 89 pitches -- 65 in the strike zone.When its his day on
the mound, he sets the tone for us, manager John Farrell said. Did once
again.Porcello has allowed three runs or fewer in 11 straight starts and is sure
to receive strong consideration for the AL Cy Young Award after going 9-15 last
year.All of us are honored to be mentioned for those awards, he said. But Ive
been saying it all year, our focus is winning and what we want to accomplish as
a team.Playing his final regular-season series in Baltimore, the 40-year-old
Ortiz connected against with a man on in the fifth for a 5--1 lead.
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Sale. It was his 35th home run of the season and the 53rd of his
career against the Orioles.When he finally walks away from the game, Ortiz will
certainly miss taking his cuts at Camden Yards.Yeah, man, its just super nice. I
like it, he said, especially when its warm like it is.Betts put Boston up 2-0
with his 31st homer in the third. It was his eighth home run in seven games at
Camden Yards -- most in a season by a Red Sox in a visiting ballpark since
Jimmie Foxx hit eight in St. Louis in 1939.Porcello retired the first 11 batters
before hitting Machado with a pitch in the fourth. Trumbo followed with an RBI
double.The Red Sox responded with a three-run fifth. Dustin Pedroia snapped an
0-for-12 skid with a run-scoring single before Ortiz launched a 1-1 pitch over
the 25-foot scoreboard in right field.Jones homered in the eighth, his
28th.TRAINERS ROOMRed Sox: RHP Steven Wright (shoulder) has started a throwing
program at the teams spring training facility in Fort Myers, Florida, but
Farrell did not give an estimated date for his return. Wright (13-6, 3.33 ERA)
last pitched on Aug. 31. ... Farrell said OF Andrew Benintendi has been cleared
to play in back-to-back games. He returned from a left knee sprain last
Tuesday.Orioles: OF Steve Pearce will have surgery to repair flexor tendons in
his right forearm in New York on Wednesday and is expected to be out 4-6 months.
Baltimore placed Pearce on the 60-day DL on Sunday. ... LHP Wade Miley threw
Monday and is feeling much better after leaving Sundays start with a strained
muscle in his back, Showalter said.UP NEXTRed Sox: Former Oriole Eduardo
Rodriguez (2-7, 4.98) makes his fourth start this season against Baltimore on
Tuesday night. Hes 1-1.Orioles: Gausman (8-10, 3.43) seeks his sixth straight
victory. The right-hander blanked Boston over eight innings last Thursday night.
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