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tend his career record against Tampa Bay
Luck is a dirty word in football circles, at least outside of Indianapolis. Air Max 270 Doernbecher . After putting in hours upon hours of mental and physical preparation week after week, no successful football team wants to believe that it is winning games because it has been lucky. The struggling teams might want to believe that theyre unlucky, but once they turn things around, you better believe theyll be pointing toward hard work, resilience and improved play, not good bounces and the vagaries of randomness.Yet, taking a step back, we know luck can play a huge role in determining football games. Luck tends to even out over a larger sample, which naturally means that luck matters more when fewer games have been played. It matters more and plays a bigger part in a half-season, as an example, than it does over a full campaign. Its with that exact argument in mind that were going to take a look at how luck has influenced the first half of the NFL season today.Luck is shorthand here for a number of concepts; a better word would be randomness or variance, but luck will do. If youve been reading my work for the past few years, youll be familiar with many of these concepts (although I did not invent many of them). If not, you can read about many of them here. I last wrote about them before the season in suggesting that the Panthers and Broncos would decline, while the Cowboys and Chargers would improve. So far, so good.Pythagorean expectationPoint differential is a better predictor of future win-loss record than current win-loss record. Its true in baseball, and research (by Rockets general manager Daryl Morey during his time at STATS) has reiterated the accuracy of that statement for football as well. We can generate an expected win total for each team by running their point totals through the Pythagorean expectation formula -- Points For2.37 / (Points For2.37 + Points Against2.37) -- and multiplying it by the number of games each team has played.Were already seeing the impact of last years Pythagorean expectation in 2016.The five teams who outperformed their point differential most significantly last year were Carolina, Denver, Indianapolis, Minnesota and San Francisco. Theyve underperformed their point differential this year by 1.9 combined wins.The five teams who most underperformed their point differential last year, meanwhile, were San Diego, Tennessee, Seattle, the New York Giants?and Jacksonville. Theyre still underperforming their expected win totals in 2016, but only by a combined 0.4 wins.Looking at 2016 performance, there are two teams who stand out as well ahead of their point differentials, and several who are likely to improve comfortably in the coming two months:The Raiders and Texans have produced better records than their point differentials (and underlying level of play) would suggest. The good news for the Raiders is that it shouldnt really matter; even if they play like the just-above-.500 team their point differential suggests over the rest of the way, theyve already banked enough wins to make it into the postseason. Indeed, ESPNs Football Power Index gives them an 80.9 percent chance of making it into January. The Texans are down at 64.5 percent, and even that is only because the rest of their division is so dreadful. Theyre playing like a 6-10 team this year.Things should improve for the Browns, but their second-half performance wont really matter for entirely different reasons. This is more tangible information for fans of the Cardinals and Eagles. (Im counting the tie as a half-win for Arizona.) While Arizona has been disappointing this season, the dramatic shift in its win-loss record overstates the drop-off. Point differential suggest that the 13-3 Cards were a 11.9-win team last year and would have them on pace to be a 10.2-win team this season.The Eagles, sadly, might have sunk their own chances. Theyve surrounded statement wins over likely playoff teams in Pittsburgh and Minnesota with narrow losses to the Lions and the three other teams in the NFC East, all by one score or less. Likewise, the Bills turned around their season after an 0-2 start by winning four straight, but three consecutive losses -- including one-score defeats at the hands of the Dolphins and Seahawks -- might doom their playoff hopes.Record in close gamesWhere gaps in Pythagorean expectation reside, unlikely good or bad luck in close games tends to follow. Performances in one-score games are generally inconsistent from year to year, and were already seeing that with the standouts from last year. Last year, the five best teams in the league in games decided by one touchdown or less were the Panthers, Cardinals, Broncos, Vikings and 49ers. They were a combined 27-9 (.750) in one-score games last year; this season, theyre 3-8-1 (.292) in those same contests.Meanwhile, the dregs of the league have improved. The five worst teams in close games last year were the Browns, Cowboys, Giants, Titans and Chargers. (Well, some of them have improved.) They were a combined 11-33 (.250) in one-touchdown games last season, and in 2016, theyre 11-13 (.458). Regression toward the mean is a strong concept here.Five teams have gone winless in close games in 2016, with the Cardinals having a mere tie to their name as the sixth:The Bills, Browns and Eagles all reappear on this list thanks to their combined 0-12 record in one-score contests. The Texans and Raiders show up on the other side of the coin. The 5-2 Giants lurk just behind the Cowboys and Chiefs in terms of teams riding their luck in close games; the only game they have played that wasnt decided by seven points or fewer was their 14-point defeat at the hands of the Vikings in Week 4.Fumble recovery rateForcing fumbles is a skill, and giving away fumbles is a legitimate liability. What happens once the ball hits the ground is mostly randomness. No team has exhibited a steady ability to recover a disproportionately high percentage of the fumbles in their games. Not even that team you know who runs fumble recovery drills in practice and makes it a priority. (All teams do that.)If we know the rate at which fumbling teams recover the football, we can estimate how many fumbles each team should have recovered. Last year, that was 53.7 percent. (This year, as Chase Stuart noted last week, its closer to 57 percent.) The teams who outperformed their expected fumble recovery rates the most in 2015 were the Raiders, Texans, Giants, Bills and Jaguars. Those teams have actually recovered two fewer fumbles than league average given their combined opportunities this season. Again: Its random, folks, not a symptom of aggression or lack thereof. The Giants and Jags each ranked among the five best teams in the league in terms of fumble recovery rate last year; in 2016, theyre the first and third worst in terms of rate.On the other hand, the Cowboys, Patriots, Lions, Titans and Colts were the five worst teams in terms of fumble recoveries below expectation last season. This year, theyve combined to recover 0.9 fumbles more than a typical team, basically leaving them at league average. Where are the outliers in 2016?The big one is Big Blue.The Giants have lost eight of their 12 fumbles on offense, but even more distressingly, theyve forced nine fumbles on defense and recovered just one of them for an 11 percent rate. Those rates cant continue. The Panthers are just behind them, having lost all seven of their fumbles on offense this year when we would expect them to recover four of the seven lost footballs. The Jags, just 2-for-8 in recovering fumbles on defense, lurk just behind. The grouping on the other side isnt quite as extreme. Air Max 270 Camo Heel .com) - The Montreal Canadiens will try to halt their longest losing streak of the season when they host the struggling New York Islanders in tonights clash at the Bell Centre. Air Max 270 Flyknit Racer Blue . LOUIS -- Valtteri Filppula assisted on three of Tampa Bays four goals, and the Lightning beat the St. http:///...hyper-jade-fake.html . How great will be revealed in the next couple of days at the board of governors meeting in Pebble Beach, Calif. NEW YORK -- Vernon Wells glanced at the scoreboard and noted that the fastball hed seen well clocked in at 96 mph. Big slump or not, Wells felt good about his pinch-hit at-bat with the Yankees trailing Tampa Bay in the seventh inning Saturday. So with a confident swing, he smashed a three-run, go-ahead double that carried New York to a 7-5 win over the Rays. Wells was in a 9-for-87 slide that landed him on the bench the past two days, with rookie outfielder Zoilo Almonte starting in his place. But with the Yankees down 5-4, Wells batted for No. 9 hitter Chris Stewart with the bases loaded and two outs. "Through his struggles, I think his at-bats against lefties were still pretty good," manager Joe Girardi said. "We just liked the matchup. Verns been doing it for a long time in big spots." Wells drive to right-centre bounced above the top of the wall, where it hit a fans glove and was ruled fan interference. The umpires allowed all three runners to cross home plate, determining David Adams would have scored from first base if not for the fan interference. They sent Wells back to second, but the Yankees suddenly had a 7-5 lead. Rays manager Joe Maddon argued that it should have been called a ground-rule double, with only two runs scoring. "It was good to hit a ball and it not land in somebodys glove," Wells said. "And it came at a great time." Tampa Bay led 5-3 after top prospect Wil Myers hit a grand slam for his first career home run in the sixth. Wells first extra-base hit since May 31 got CC Sabathia (8-5) off the hook after he allowed five runs in seven innings. "Its frustrating," Sabathia said. "Im happy these guys came back and were able to overcome that." Mariano Rivera worked a scoreless ninth for his 26th save. Meanwhile, Almonte kept up his hot hitting, starting in Wells place in left field. On Friday night, he went 3 for 4 with a home run. He was 1 for 2 with two walks and three RBIs on Saturday. "Its not easy at all, but Im trying my best," Almonte said through a translator. "I feel like Im seeing the ball really well and I just hope it continues." David Robertson came on after the Yankees took the lead and pitched a perfect eighth with two strikeouts. Joel Peralta (1-4) took over for the Rays in the seventh and immediately got in trouble. He loaded the bases with one out on two walks and Lyle Overbays double, and was pulled for lefty Jake McGee. McGee struck out Jayson Nix for the second out but walked Adams to force in a run, the second time the Yannkees scored on a bases-loaded walk. Air Max 270 React Tan. Adams had never drawn a walk in 86 career plate appearances before Saturday; he had two in the game. Wells then batted for Stewart, who was 0 for 3 with a double play to end a second-inning threat. As bad as his numbers looked, Wells insisted he had felt OK at the plate. The time off gave him the chance to work on his swing in the batting cage. "I never lose confidence," he said. "As soon as you lose confidence, youre done." The Rays trailed 3-1 when the Yankees intentionally walked Evan Longoria with two outs to get to Myers. The rookie came in hitting .190 in five games since he was called up from the minors at the beginning of the week. Hed had exactly one hit in four straight games before going 3 for 4 on Saturday in his first start as a designated hitter. Longoria was 2 for 2 with a double and a solo homer that accounted for the Rays lone run when the Yankees intentionally walked him. On a 1-2 count, Myers hit a high fly to centre. Brett Gardner jumped at the fence and the ball bounced off the webbing of his glove and into the stands, though it appeared to already be over the wall when he touched it. "It was just awesome to be down two strikes and the crowd cheering and to be able to put a swing like that on it," Myers said. "Just a cool experience." Rays rookie starter Alex Colome is yet to allow an earned run over 10 innings in two career starts. He gave up three unearned runs, five hits and five walks with three strikeouts in 4 1-3 innings. The Rays handed out a season-worst nine walks. "Walks really kicked our butt today," Maddon said. With two outs in the third, Almonte singled on a two-strike count to drive in two runs and give the Yankees a 2-1 lead. He walked with the bases loaded in the fifth. NOTES: Myers became the first visiting player to hit a grand slam at Yankee Stadium for his first career home run since Detroits Ricky Peters in 1980. Myers is the second player in club history with a grand slam for that first homer. Jorge Velandia did it in 2007, also against the Yankees. ... Rays LHP Alex Torres allowed no hits and struck out three in 1 2-3 innings, extending his scoreless streak to open the season to 20 innings. ... Yankees 2B Robinson Cano had a career-high four walks. ... RHP Ivan Nova (2-1) looks to extend his career record against Tampa Bay at Yankee Stadium to 5-0 on Sunday, the parks 67th Old-Timers Day. Rays RHP Chris Archer (1-3), their second straight rookie starter, is 0-5 on the road in his career. ' ' '
- Created: Feb 21 '20
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