Currently momentum gauge sentiment and money flow indicators are negative with declining conditions and increasing negative momentum through last week. A decline to 2745 levels seems likely barring any further changes in macro-economic events. We wish to emphasize that long volatility is a tough position that is very likely to lose money. However, for the right purpose and at the right time - it can be a great hedging tool.
As a matter of fact, at the Wheel of FORTUNE, we just executed such a trade. On July 31st, as a measure of protection ahead of the FOMC meeting/decision, we bought UVXY 08/02/2019 26.00 CALL for $0.60. Two hours later, we sold it for $2.40.
Now, if you think we are selling you the 300% return - you're damn wrong! What we actually try to describe is that certain trades/strategies are only appropriate for certain purposes and specific times. To wit:
We are very proud of our risk-adjusted returns but we never sell returns. Never! Instead, we are selling our methodology, our thinking, our risk/reward approach, that may slightly under-perform a 20% rallying stock market, but is certain to out-perform, meaningfully, a market that is using the elevator on its way down.
By the way, anyone who kept this option for 48 hours (till Friday) could have sold it for a 1000% gain. Yes, had we haven't closed it quickly, due to its nature (playing defense, not offense!) this trade (after less than two days) was a 10x multi-bagger.
And if you decided to roll this trade and buy the exact same option, but with a future (down the road) expiry date - you're sitting on a massive gain today.
Again, for us this was about playing defense, not offense. As such, once the option fulfilled its part - we let it go. There are other-different hedges that we keep for longer periods. It all depends on the purpose of the stock trading.
Two conditional signals that are very important to watch:
Avoid/Minimize trading when the Negative score is higher than the Positive momentum score.
Avoid/Minimize trading when the Negative score is above 70 on the gauge.
Be sure to read this article:
Profiting With Volatility Gains As The Fed Drains for additional details, signals and profitable trades in VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX Short-Term ETN (TVIX) to trade the signals for maximum profitability. Additional volatility instruments include the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX), the ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (SVXY), the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY), the iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXXB), the ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (VIXY), among others.
