I’m sure Tuesday’s Week 10 Pundit Power Rankings were a disappointment to many Arrowhead Pride readers.It just didn’t seem fair that the Kansas City Chiefs would fall to fourth place after a 37-21 victory — even if it was against the Cleveland Browns — considering that the Chiefs have played a more difficult schedule than the other teams at the top http://www.thechiefsfootballauthentic.com/dee-ford-jersey-authentic , and their single loss was by a field goal against one of the best teams in the league.Well, what can I tell you?That’s the way it is with pundits.They’re human and have their own built-in prejudices.Sometimes their practiced eyes and long memories — which usually serve them very well — need a dose of hard reality.That’s the whole purpose of our True Power Rankings model — to mix in that dose of reality.And you’re going to like what it tells you this week.As usual, we’ll start with how the number-crunchers see the NFL in Week 10:Cruncher Power Rankings for Week 10Chiefs AFC West Teams Other AFC TeamsIn the view of the crunchers, the Chiefs are right where they were in Week 9 — still ranked first in all of the data models except PE.Normally, I’d give some analysis of the movement within the cruncher rankings, but this week, let’s dispense with that.There’s not a lot to discuss — and besides, I’ve already teased you enough.Let’s get right to the meat of this thing, and show you what happens when we average these cruncher power rankings with the pundit rankings from Tuesday.True Power Rankings for Week 10Chiefs AFC West Teams Other AFC TeamsThe Chiefs are at the top of the heap — not just in the AFC, but in the whole NFL — for the very reasons you probably thought it was wrong for them to be fourth in the eyes of the pundits: because they’ve played a stronger schedule, and their single loss doesn’t count against them as much as the losses the other teams have had.But as your eyes travel across the table, you may have noticed that something seems... wrong.Shouldn’t the New Orleans Saints be ranked first, with their number one ranking with the pundits, and their number three ranking with the crunchers?No... they shouldn’t.As we explained when we introduced this series at the beginning of the season — you can brush up with the True Power Rankings Methodology — we’re not averaging the ranks themselves, but rather the numbers behind those rankings.To illustrate, I’ll show you the top four teams again — but this time, with the ranking points from this week instead of the rankings.The math works out.The Chiefs are first because they should be.But while we’re here http://www.thechiefsfootballauthentic.com/eric-fisher-jersey-authentic , let’s go back to a comment I referenced in Tuesday’s Week 10 Pundit Power Rankings.I pointed out that Frank Schwab of Yahoo! Sports had characterized the situation correctly: that the Chiefs, Rams and Saints — but not the Patriots — all had a legitimate argument to be ranked number one.This table reveals that Schwab was right; once we factor in the cruncher data, the margin between these teams is indeed very small. As it turns out, he also picked the right argument to believe — he was the only pundit in our model to rank the Chiefs first this week!But let’s not get carried away.Schwab’s opinion — as right as it was this week — might be wrong next week.As always, we’ll close with your weekly reality-check. Let’s take a look at the Week 10 cruncher grades:Cruncher Grades for Week 10Chiefs AFC West Teams Other AFC TeamsOnce again — without the bias induced by rankings, which tell us only that one value is greater than another, but not by how much — we see that the teams at the top (and bottom) are bunched together pretty closely.The best (and worst) teams in the league are pretty easy to identify.All of the teams in the NFL have played at least half of their games for the season, so the data models are giving us better results than they did early in the year, and the pundits are beginning to see the individual trees in the forest. We’re starting to get a pretty clear idea of what’s going on.When I was running my test of the True Power Rankings model in 2017, it was right around this point of the season that I started to see how well it could work. Crowdsourcing the opinions of the pundits — and then factoring in results from multiple data models with different strengths and weaknesses — really did give a clearer picture of what was happening than any individual pundit or model could hope to do.I hope that you’re starting to see that, too. As Andy Reid might say, the fact that the model now shows the Chiefs at the top of the NFL is just icing on the cake.So let’s enjoy the Week 10 games.On Tuesday, we’ll fire up the spreadsheet, and see how it all works out. After trailing 24-9 at halftime on Sunday night, the Kansas City Chiefs outscored the New England Patriots 31-16 until the final seconds of the game, when a 28-yard Stephen Gostowski field goal with three seconds remaining closed out a 43-40 Patriots win.Here are five hot takes from the Chiefs’ first loss of the season.1. Brady vs. Mahomes IGreg M. Cooper-USA TODAY SportsYes... I’m breaking out the Roman numerals, because this matter between Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes isn’t settled.The aging legend and the young upstart played to a draw on Sunday night Womens Harrison Butker Jersey , notching nearly identical passer ratings of 109.2 and 110.0.But that is not to say they played identically.Brady was steady throughout the game.Mahomes played poorly in the first half, and brilliantly in the second.Mahomes threw four touchdown passes, but partially offset those with a pair of interceptions.Brady threw only one touchdown, and didn’t throw a pick.Brady did, however, fumble each of the two times he was sacked, while Mahomes wasn’t sacked at all.Honestly... it’s just about what we might have expected from these two players — when you consider their respective ages, and that their styles of play are so completely different.But here’s the thing: Brady has probably learned everything he’s ever going to know about playing this game.Mahomes, on the other hand, is nothing less than a sponge who — according to his coaches — remembers everything, and learns from his mistakes.One of those mistakes from Sunday was scoring a touchdown in a single play on the Chiefs’ final drive, and handing the ball back to Tom Brady in a tie game with three minutes left on the clock.In Brady vs. Mahomes II — which will likely occur in January — that mistake probably won’t happen again.2. A tale of two halvesGreg M. Cooper-USA TODAY SportsBy the time the first half ended, the Chiefs had scored three field goals and Patrick Mahomes had thrown two interceptions, while the Patriots had scored three touchdowns and a field goal.This is not a formula for success in Foxborough, Massachusetts.There are probably Patriots fans who went to bed during halftime secure in the knowledge that the Patriots would win the game 45-15. After all, young quarterbacks are routinely humiliated in Gillette Stadium. Why should this game be any different?But in the second half, the Chiefs scored four touchdowns — all of them passes from Patrick Mahomes — plus a field goal http://www.thechiefsfootballauthentic.com/cameron-erving-jersey-authentic , while the Patriots managed only four field goals. More than a few Patriots fans will read their morning newspaper headlines and wonder, “What the hell happened?”The Patriots had simply did to the Chiefs what the Chiefs have done to their opponents all season: forced them into abandoning their game plan in order to play catch-up. And like a couple of their earlier opponents, the Chiefs almost pulled off a comeback win.But this isn’t horseshoes or hand grenades. The Chiefs are 5-1 because they deserve to be. Both teams did their best to slow down the tempo of the game in the first half. The Patriots simply did it more effectively, and forced the Chiefs into doing what they didn’t want to do.3. Yards, yards and more yardsGreg M. Cooper-USA TODAY SportsThe Chiefs defense gives up a lot of yards. A LOT of yards.On Sunday night, the defense surrendered another 500 yards to an opponent — bringing them to just over 2800 yards given up in six games.If you do the math on that... well, don’t do that math, OK?If you care about the number of yards the defense is giving up, it’s just going to upset you.But I think it’s important to note something about Sunday’s game.Once again, the Chiefs had way too many snaps on defense — 75 — versus 53 on offense.That works out to 6.7 yards per play.Is that a good number?No... absolutely not.It’s worse than several other games this year — but not all of them.And it was against the Patriots — not the Jaguars or the 49ers.Perhaps more importantly, the Chiefs gave up 4.6 yards per attempt on the ground.Thisisn’t an ideal number, either, and it’s higher than a couple of other games this season — and substantially lower than several of them, too.Then there’s this: in the first half of the game, the Chiefs defense gave up 190 yards — and 24 points. In the second half, they gave up 310 yards — and 19 points.I’m working on two points here:First, let’s recognize that it is important to pay attention to the yards a defense gives up.But just looking at the raw number of yards isn’t very useful.It’s more informative to consider how much it gives up on a per-play basis — particularly now that bye weeks are starting to happen Youth Xavier Williams Jersey , and teams can rise or fall in the rankings simply because they didn’t play in a given week.And second, although yards are important, they still aren’t posted on the scoreboard.4. A special play from the special teamPhoto by Adam Glanzman/Getty ImagesEver since training camp. special teams coach Dave Toub has been saying that Tremon Smith was a talented kick returner.And with the injury to De’Anthony Thomas, he got his opportunity to shine against the Patriots.Smith had four kickoff returns during the game — each one progressively longer.The last, of course, was the 97-yard return in the fourth quarter that set up the Chiefs go-ahead touchdown.All due credit to Smith, who averaged 45 yards on his four returns in the game.But we should note that in the long return, the blocker who opened the door was none other than recently-returned linebacker Frank Zombo.Zombo gets a bum rap from a lot of fans, but he’s always been a very good special teams player, and he demonstrated it again on Sunday.5. The Chiefs are still doing just fineDavid Butler II-USA TODAY SportsAs more than a few people noted this week, the Chiefs were playing with house money when they got off the plane in Foxborough.There was plenty to gain with a win over the Patriots, but little to lose.A win would have been a big statement for the team on a national stage, and given the Chiefs a tie-breaker over the Patriots that may yet prove to be important. But there was little to lose with a loss — especially a narrow one.The Chiefs are still in a great position to win the AFC West for the third consecutive season, and after playing the Patriots as they did — particularly on their home field — no reasonable person would fail to give them the respect they have earned.And boy howdy... it was a fun game to watch!
