This offseason has developed a bit slowly compared with recent years, but one subtle narrative that has taken shape in recent weeks is the state of pitching metrics.
Cheap NCAA Jerseys . Sam Millers recent article looked at Robbie Ray and the huge disparity between his FanGraphs and Baseball Reference WAR, while the AL Cy Young voting rewarded Rick Porcello, a traditional stats guy, over more saber-friendly competition. What does that say about publicly available pitching metrics? What are they missing, and what can that missing piece of information tell us about pitchers who could have an impact on 2017s pennant races?All metrics get the value of the strikeout and the walk, and the role played by park effects. What they are missing is a precise measurement of pitchers ability to manage contact. But in the age of StatCast, there really isnt an excuse for that. The data is at our fingertips, so we might as well put it to use in the evaluation of pitchers. There are two major aspects to pitching: What happens when the hitter does not make contact -- strikeouts and walks -- and what happens when the hitter does. Pitchers should be evaluated based on both the frequency of each type of ball in play allowed, i.e., their BIP mix, and on the authority with which those batted balls were hit.Frequency is a key; for most pitchers, the frequency of most BIP types allowed correlates well from year to year. Starting pitchers popup, fly ball and grounder rates allowed tend to stay about the same; not so line-drive rates, which are relatively volatile. Only truly excellent hurlers -- and hitters -- tend to record better than league-average line-drive rates consistently. Average authority (or exit speed) allowed, both overall and by specific BIP type, correlates a bit from year to year, but not nearly to as significant an extent as frequency. ERA and even FIP (which doesnt go much further than docking a pitcher for allowing homers) both miss pitchers relative contact management skill.This is where a couple of my metrics come in.?Adjusted contact score expresses a pitchers contact management performance based on the exit speed and launch angle of each ball put in play, on a scale where 100 equals average. Then, you add back the Ks and walks to get each pitchers Tru ERA, which can then be compared with his ERA and FIP.
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